The leading international think tank of the insurance industry


Risk Modelling Seminar image

Co-organised with SCOR Foundation and hosted by SCOR

Risk information is the foundation for informed decision-making, it increases the understanding of the characteristics of risk, supports pricing risk, and designing and evaluating cost–benefits of various risk management strategies. Over the last 25 years, catastrophe (CAT) risk models have revolutionised the (re)insurance industry’s approach to pricing, underwriting and managing their portfolios of risk.  The value of these models has been discovered by other stakeholders particularly within a comprehensive approach to building socio-economic resilience  to extreme events and climate risk.

Furthermore, advances in climate research, earth observations and forecasting techniques combined with mathematical and computational modeling provide unprecedented opportunities for developing the next generation of forward-looking risk models.


Seminar Highlights:

Download the slides from the keynote and panel sessions

Read the full seminar programme

View the event photo gallery

Publishing soon: Geneva Association paper on "How Risk Modelling can Innovate Extreme Events and Climate Risk Management", informed by discussions at this scientific forum.

Innovation in risk modelling: pathways for research -
Interview with Maryam Golnaraghi


How reinsurers can absorb the risks of natural catastrophe events -
Interview with Denis Kessler




Report: The Stakeholder Landscape in Extreme Events and Climate Risk Management

Stakeholder Landscape In EECR

The report provides a synopsis of the patterns of stakeholder engagement in recent international framework agreements and presents the complex stakeholder landscape and initiatives in extreme event and climate risk management over the last decade.

25 years of cat risk models: what have we learned and what is next? -
Interview with Ian Branagan




Next generation risk models: developing a holistic framework -
Interview with Paul Nunn





Report: An Integrated Approach to Managing Extreme Events and Climate Risks

This report provides insights about climate-related mounting social and economic risks, analyses obstacles to the insurance industry’s contribution and makes recommendations on how to overcome some of these hurdles.

Scientific research and risk modelling: building partnerships -
Interview with Julia Slingo


Scientific data and unconventional partnerships: future risk models -
Interview with Molly Jahn



COP 21 Paris Agreement: What Does It Mean for the (Re)insurance Sector?


This report provides an analysis of the implications of the COP21 Paris agreement for the insurance industry and its role in supporting global disaster risk reduction efforts.


Expanding the use of risk models: enabling better risk management -
Interview with Mamiko Yokoi-Arai


















































Session details:

Keynote Speech: Professor Jean Tirole, Chairman, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE)
Chairman of the Executive Committee, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST)

Panel 1: Challenges, opportunities and lessons learned from 25 years of developing and utilizing Catastrophe (CAT) risk models for risk transfer applications
Special Remarks & Moderator: Ian Branagan (Renaissance Re)
- Jay Guin (AIR)
- Dickie Whitaker (OASIS)
- Lixin Zeng (AplhaCat)
- Alexandre Allmann (Munich Re)

Panel 2: Next generation risk models: approaches, opportunities, challenges
Special Remarks & Moderator: Paul Nunn (SCOR)
- Robert Muir Wood (RMS)
- Federico Waisman (Ariel Re)
- Molly Jahn (University of Wisconsin-Madison and Oak Ridge National Laboratories)
- Madeleine Thomson (Columbia University)

Panel 3: Harnessing latest development in weather/water/climate research, earth observations, forecasting for next generation of forward looking risk models
Special Remarks & Moderator: Maryam Golnaraghi (The Geneva Association)
- Jianming Yin (Tokio Marine Technologies)
- Johnny Chan (City University of Hong Kong)
- Ghassem Asrar (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PNNL)
- Dame Julia Slingo (Former Chief Scientist - UK Met Office)
- Lawrence Buja (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)

Panel 4: Role of Risk Modelling as an enabler to stimulate new sovereign and regional risk transfer
Special Remarks & Moderator: Mamiko Yokoi-Arai (OECD)
- Alanna Simpson (GFDRR’s Risk and Innovation Lab)
- Gary McInally (Flood Re)
- Nicola Ranger (UK DFID)
- Gerry Lemcke (Swiss Re)
- Kirsten Dunlop (Climate-KIC)

Press release: How will risk modelling shape the future of risk transfer? Global experts lead the way (06.03.17)